The Evolution of Support for Sovereignty - Myths and Realities

Abstract

Now that Bernard Landry has taken the helm of both the Parti Québécois and the Quebec government, promising at the same time to rekindle the sovereigntist flame, it appears appropriate to examine how voter intent in a possible future referendum on sovereignty has evolved since Lucien Bouchard's entrance onto Quebec's political stage during the 1995 referendum. This evolution forms the background for events both recent and future. In the 1995 referendum campaign, polls were generally accurate in predicting voter intent when 75 percent of non-disclosers - i.e., those who reported that they did not know how they would vote and those who refused to divulge their intent - were attributed to the No side. Since then, the major polling firms have continued to collect data on public opinion, either on their own initiative or for sponsors, generally using the same question that was used during the referendum. This makes it possible to analyze how voter intent in a possible future referendum has evolved since 1995.