Security Implications of Demographic Change: A Canadian Perspective

Abstract

The world is at a demographic crossroads. Hitherto, high birth rates had ensured predominantly young populations with few older people. War and epidemics, such as the plague, would intervene to depress population growth. By contrast, depressed population growth today is a function of an historically unprecedented decline in birth rates: women are consistently having fewer (or no) children than at any previous time in history (for reasons that are beyond the scope of this research note). Demographically, the world is entering unknown territory owing to historically unprecedented changes in the three variables that make up demography: fertility, mortality, and migration. Differentials in fertility and mortality are not just affecting population structure. Population structure affects political stability, and political instability tends to be a catalyst for migration. By gaining a better grasp of the demographic drivers of political and economic in/stability, Canada can take strategic action to mitigate push factors of migration. Canada's capacity to act in concert with allies, however, is constrained by the costs and stagnant tax base associated with population aging which, in an age of fiscal austerity, is bound to increase competition over scarce resources among different policy priorities and strategic objectives.