“Is There a Bus?”: Ridership Changes from All-day, Every-day Transit Service in Toronto

Abstract

This thesis explores the relationship between public transit ridership and service provision on bus routes in Toronto, Canada. The study examines how increasing the span-of-service, or the hours of operation for transit routes, affects ridership patterns. The research addresses a key question: "How does transit ridership change when additional hours of transit service are provided?" Additionally, the thesis analyzes the demographic characteristics of the neighborhoods where service enhancements occur, assessing the correlation between these characteristics and ridership changes. This work is rooted in the broader context of public transit's role in urban mobility. Public transportation provides essential access to employment, education, and services while reducing dependence on private automobiles and contributing to environmental sustainability. The thesis highlights the importance of bus services within an integrated transit network, especially in a major city like Toronto, where buses serve diverse neighborhoods and play a crucial role in ensuring mobility for residents. The study utilizes ridership data before and after two significant service increase initiatives in Toronto, in 2008 and 2015, to analyze changes in ridership across different routes. The research investigates the degree to which increased hours of operation lead to corresponding changes in ridership. The findings suggest that expanding the span-of-service can positively impact ridership, particularly in areas with specific demographic characteristics, such as neighborhoods with higher populations of low-income residents, recent immigrants, and renters. Overall, this thesis contributes to the understanding of how public transit service improvements, particularly in bus operations, can enhance urban mobility and support equitable access to transportation in metropolitan areas like Toronto.